Good Morning, here is this weeks overview
White Hydrogen Market Heating Up?
🏔️ White Hydrogen
The Rundown: White hydrogen, also known as gold or naturally occurring hydrogen, has rapidly entered the spotlight, with seismic surveys confirming large subsurface accumulations across Australia, the U.S., and parts of Africa.
While investor excitement is building around its potential for ultra-low costs, technical and regulatory uncertainties still present hurdles.
Drilling into these geological formations can potentially lead to a consistent production of inherently emissions free, low cost hydrogen.
A commercial operation by Hydroma has been successfully powering a community in Mali since 2012.
🌍 What’s driving the acceleration into 2025:
Advanced Prospecting: Geophysical tools like passive seismic and microseep detection have enabled large-scale prospecting, allowing for the mapping of vast regions of potential reserves.
Proven Cost-Effectiveness: Building on the Mali success, where natural hydrogen is already powering a rural village at near-zero marginal cost using a pilot-scale well, the commercial viability is becoming increasingly clear. Rystad Energy estimates current costs in Mali to be as low as USD $0.50/ Kg, however, current market estimates are around USD$1/kg in North American markets.
Find this chart and more in my report attached below
💰 Investor implications:
Capex advantage: Natural hydrogen could be orders of magnitude cheaper than electrolytic production, avoiding the need for renewables, water, or high-voltage grid upgrades.
No carbon, no credit risk: It’s emissions-free at source, offering IRA-scale climate upside without reliance on policy incentives or carbon pricing.
⚠️ What’s holding it back:
No Clear Legal Classification: Most jurisdictions currently lack a specific legal framework defining ownership of naturally occurring hydrogen.
Nascent Reservoir Modelling: Unlike mature oil and gas, we don’t yet possess robust geological models for how white H₂ flows, accumulates, or depletes underground.
Infrastructure Gaps: Hydrogen infrastructure for capturing, storing, and transporting pure H₂ for widespread new applications is still largely undeveloped.
🧠 My take:
There are fundamental problems preventing hydrogen from being transported or stored easily. Companies that are able to locate and control underground reservoirs close to industrial hubs will be the winners here. There may be opportunities to power remote communities, mining operations or power Direct Air Capture facilities; however, the largest and most immediate financial returns for geological hydrogen will likely come from supplying established industrial demand such as ammonia production and petroleum refineries, therefore, resources near these locations will be winners.
You can download my year-end 2024 report on the state of the White Hydrogen Industry here
Power Moves
🤝 M&A
TotalEnergies has acquired eight solar projects (350 MW) and two battery storage sites (85 MW) from Low Carbon. Located in southern England, these projects are expected to be operational by 2028, generating over 350 GWh annually, enough to power approximately 100,000 UK homes.
Partners Group has agreed to acquire PowerTransitions, a U.S.-based utility-scale power developer, from EnCap Investments. The $450 million investment aims to accelerate the transformation of legacy thermal power assets into renewable energy projects, addressing the rising U.S. power demand.
TPG Rise Climate has acquired a majority stake in Aurora Energy Research, a UK-based energy analytics firm. Aurora provides power market forecasting and analytics across 40+ markets, serving over 1,000 institutions. This acquisition is set to enhance TPG's climate-focused investment strategies.
🚀 Tech Watch
Miami-based Exowatt raised a $70 million Series A to scale its modular solar thermal energy systems, designed to provide continuous power for data centers and industrial applications. The round was led by Felicis Ventures, with participation from HSBC Innovation Banking and others. Exowatt's technology aims to offer dispatchable renewable energy, addressing the growing demand for reliable, clean power in energy-intensive sectors.
Founded by former Microsoft and BP executives, GridFree AI has raised $5 million to develop modular, off-grid data centers powered by integrated gas and battery systems. The startup's "power foundry" approach seeks to reduce capital and operational costs while delivering high-efficiency power solutions for AI infrastructure.
Chicago-based Energize Capital announced the close of its third venture fund at $430 million, surpassing its initial target. The fund attracted significant international investment, particularly from Canadian and European limited partners, and will focus on software solutions that enhance efficiency in industrial and infrastructure sectors.
TAE Technologies, a California-based fusion energy startup, has secured over $150 million in its latest funding round, with backing from Google, Chevron, and New Enterprise Associates. The funds will support the development of TAE's Copernicus reactor, aiming to achieve net energy capability and advance the commercialization of fusion power.
Latest Developments
📊 Data Drop
Data Centers Will Consume 8% of U.S. Power by 2030: Data centers, especially those powering AI, are reshaping the U.S. power landscape.
🔌 Goldman Sachs forecasts a 15% CAGR in data center electricity demand from 2023 to 2030. That means:
📈 From ~3% of U.S. power demand today → 8% by 2030 in the base case
🐂 Bull case: 11% of all U.S. electricity
🐻 Bear case: still 5%, more than double today
Impact: Data centers alone are expected to drive 90 bps (0.9%) of the U.S.'s total 2.4% power demand growth over this period.
Generation capacity needed:
47 GW of new power capacity
60% natural gas, ~40% renewables
💸 Estimated investment:
→ $50 billion in new generation by 2030 just to power servers
📜 Policy Watch
📜 Policy To Watch This Week
A U.S. Senate panel, led by Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito, has proposed rescinding all unspent funds allocated for climate and clean energy initiatives under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The proposal also includes a 10-year pause on the methane emissions fee for oil and gas operators.
Why it matters: This proposal signals growing political resistance to the U.S.’s clean energy push and could undermine investor confidence in projects relying on federal support. For developers and funds banking on IRA incentives, this introduces legislative risk, potentially slowing capital deployment, timelines, and prompting a reallocation toward more policy-stable jurisdictions.
The UK government is contemplating offering electricity bill discounts to households using heat pumps to encourage adoption and reduce carbon emissions. The plan involves exempting heat pump users from "green levies" on electricity, aiming to make heat pumps more financially attractive compared to gas heating. This initiative is part of the broader strategy to meet the UK's climate goals.
Why it matters: This policy would directly improve the operating economics of heat pumps. If passed, it could catalyze demand in one of Europe’s slowest major markets for heat pump adoption. For investors, it signals government willingness to tilt cost structures in favour of electrification, opening up near-term opportunities in HVAC manufacturing, distribution, installation services, and supporting software.
An analysis by E2 and Atlas Public Policy reports that over $14 billion in U.S. clean energy investments have been canceled or delayed in 2025. These setbacks are attributed to policy uncertainty arising from proposed federal legislation that threatens to weaken clean energy tax credits established under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The cancellations have also resulted in the loss of approximately 10,000 clean energy jobs.
Why it matters: This can be a reminder that policy volatility can directly translate into capital flight. The slowdown affects the entire ecosystem from utilities and developers to equipment providers and workforce training programs. It also emphasizes the importance of federal consistency for long-term planning in infrastructure-heavy sectors.
